LONDON, UK (GlobalData), 19 March 2014 - The global prophylactic human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine market value is forecast to experience moderate growth over the coming years, climbing from $1.7 billion in 2012 to $2.2 billion by 2022, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.6%, says a new report from research and consulting firm GlobalData.
The company’s report* states that out of the nine major markets (9MM: the US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan and Australia), HPV vaccine sales in Canada and Australia are expected to grow at the largest CAGRs of over 9% during the forecast period. This will be driven by the launch of Merck’s V503 vaccine and the inclusion of males in routine HPV vaccine recommendations.
Claire Herman, GlobalData’s Director of Infectious Disease and Cardiovascular and Metabolic Disorders, says: “Recognizing both the role of HPV in other non-cervical cancers and the benefits of herd immunity has led to a greater emphasis on vaccinating both males and females. A shift away from a sole focus on cervical cancer in females appears to have benefited Merck, as its Gardasil vaccine provides protection against two additional HPV types, which are responsible for genital warts in males and females.”
However, the global market for prophylactic HPV vaccines is marked by substantial obstacles to growth, namely low coverage rates and fears over vaccine safety. Additionally, a major clinical unmet need regarding current HPV vaccines is the limited number of HPV types against which they protect.
GlobalData believes that Merck’s upcoming nine-valent pipeline vaccine V503 is well placed to capitalize on this need, with sales forecast to reach $1.5 billion in the US alone by 2022, representing a massive 95% market share.
“Key opinion leaders from across the 9MM expect V503 to be widely used, essentially displacing Merck’s own Gardasil. However, it was noted that an inflated price, relative to current HPV vaccines, could present a barrier to uptake. Other non-clinical factors that will affect the vaccine’s adoption include low awareness of HPV vaccination and the stigma surrounding the vaccination of adolescents against a sexually-transmitted virus,” Herman concludes.